Workforce Planning in the GCC: How Employers Can Plan for Uncertainty

Key takeaways:

• GCC employers are planning around several changing workforce variables, including localisation, skills, technology, project demand and labour mobility.
• Labour availability does not always translate into access to the skills, experience and capabilities required for specific roles.
• Localisation is increasingly a workforce-design consideration, rather than something employers can address only when compliance deadlines approach.
• Scenario planning can help employers prepare for changes in business demand, regulation, technology and talent availability.
• A more flexible workforce strategy can combine internal development, external hiring, contingent talent and automation according to the capability and level of certainty involved.

For many GCC employers, workforce planning has traditionally involved estimating business growth, determining the people required to support it, identifying hiring gaps, and recruiting accordingly.

That approach is becoming more difficult to sustain. The challenge is not simply finding enough people. Employers are increasingly planning around several variables at the same time.

Localisation policies are changing workforce composition. AI and digitalisation are changing the skills required for existing roles. Large projects can change scope or timing. Geopolitical disruption can affect labour mobility and the availability of expatriate talent.

As a result, workforce planning is becoming less about producing one fixed headcount forecast and more about preparing the organisation to respond when its assumptions change.

Across the GCC, migrant workers still represent a substantial share of the workforce, while governments are simultaneously seeking greater participation by nationals and building more knowledge-intensive economies.

This creates a workforce-planning environment in which composition, capability and demand are all moving at once.

The GCC workforce paradox: available workers do not always mean available capability

Saudi Arabia provides a useful example of why workforce planning cannot be reduced to headcount.

Saudi national unemployment stood at 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026, according to GASTAT data, while overall unemployment was 3.1%. At the same time, 95.8% of unemployed Saudi nationals surveyed said they were willing to work in the private sector.

This suggests that the question for employers is not always whether people are available.

It can instead be whether the available workforce matches what particular organisations and roles require.

There may be differences in skills, experience, occupational fit, location, compensation expectations or the specific capabilities required by an employer.

Localisation is becoming a workforce-design issue

Localisation policies are becoming increasingly important to workforce planning across the GCC, although the specific requirements differ between countries.

In the UAE, private-sector companies with 50 or more employees are expected to reach a 10% Emiratisation rate by the end of 2026, with annual increases applying along the way.

Saudi Arabia is also continuing to expand localisation requirements across specific professions and sectors. Qatar has set a national objective of increasing the share of Qataris employed in the private sector, while Oman has introduced financial incentives and penalties linked to Omanisation compliance.

For employers, these developments change the workforce-planning question.

Instead of asking only, “How many people do we need?”, organisations increasingly need to ask:

• Which roles can be localised immediately?
• Which roles require a longer national talent-development pipeline?
• Which capabilities can be developed internally?
• Which specialist skills may still require international recruitment?
• How should workforce costs change as localisation requirements evolve?

 

This is why localisation is becoming a workforce-design issue, rather than a compliance exercise that begins shortly before a deadline.

For organisations operating across multiple GCC markets, the challenge becomes even more complex because workforce strategies may need to accommodate different nationalisation policies, labour regulations and talent pools simultaneously.

When business demand changes, workforce plans have to change too

Workforce plans are also affected by changes in business investment and project priorities.

Saudi Arabia’s large-scale development programme illustrates this clearly. Reporting in 2024 indicated that the Public Investment Fund recorded around $8 billion in write-downs associated with five major projects, including projects connected to the wider giga-project portfolio.

That does not mean that Saudi Arabia’s diversification programme has stopped. It does show, however, why workforce plans built entirely around fixed project assumptions can become vulnerable when project scope, timing or investment priorities change.

A major infrastructure, energy, tourism or technology project can create demand for thousands of workers across several disciplines. If the project’s timetable changes, the workforce requirement can change with it.

This makes scenario planning particularly useful.

A GCC employer could consider at least three workforce scenarios:

Base case: The current business plan proceeds broadly as expected.

Acceleration case: Investment, project delivery or market demand increases faster than expected, requiring faster recruitment or greater use of flexible talent.

Change case: A project is delayed, its scope changes, investment is redirected or market conditions weaken, requiring the organisation to slow hiring, redeploy employees or adjust workforce costs.

Each scenario can then be linked to specific workforce implications: headcount, critical skills, recruitment, localisation, training, contractors and cost.

AI is changing what GCC employers need from their workforce

AI introduces another layer of uncertainty because its effect is not limited to creating new jobs.

It can change the tasks performed within existing jobs, alter the skills required for certain positions and create entirely new areas of responsibility.

For workforce planners, this means that headcount planning increasingly needs to be accompanied by skills planning.

An organisation may have enough employees today but still lack the capabilities it will need two or three years from now.

A useful assessment should therefore identify:

• Which skills the organisation has today.
• Which capabilities future roles will require.
• What existing tasks are likely to change through AI or automation.
• Which employees could develop into emerging roles.
• What capabilities need to be recruited externally.
• Which activities could be automated.

 

The distinction between AI upskilling and reskilling is particularly relevant here. Upskilling can deepen an employee’s ability to perform an existing role, while reskilling prepares them for substantially different responsibilities.

The appropriate response will depend on how much a role is changing.

The scale of new AI infrastructure also creates immediate workforce requirements. For example, more than 5,000 workers were reported to be working on the first 200MW phase of Stargate UAE, illustrating how AI investment can generate demand across construction, engineering, data-centre and technical roles.

Geopolitical uncertainty can become a workforce issue

Geopolitical disruption can affect workforce planning through several channels at once.

Changes in regional security conditions can affect travel, supply chains, business confidence, project activity and the movement of international workers.

This is particularly relevant to GCC economies because expatriate labour remains an important component of many sectors.

The ILO has also reported sharp declines in migrant-worker deployments to several GCC economies since the crisis began, highlighting how geopolitical disruption can affect the external talent pipeline itself.

The workforce-planning response does not necessarily mean replacing international talent with local talent overnight. Instead, employers can examine where their workforce is most exposed to disruption.

For example:

• Which critical roles depend on a narrow international talent pool?
• Which positions could be performed remotely or regionally?
• Which skills could be developed internally?
• Are there alternative recruitment markets?
• Which roles require succession coverage?
• How quickly could the organisation respond if international mobility became more difficult?

 

The objective is not to predict every geopolitical event.

It is to understand which workforce assumptions are most vulnerable if conditions change.

What are GCC employers doing about workforce uncertainty?

Employers across the region are responding in several ways.

One is the development of national talent pipelines. Rather than treating localisation as a hiring target alone, organisations can connect recruitment with graduate programmes, career development, internal mobility and leadership pipelines.

Another is investment in upskilling and reskilling. This can reduce dependence on external hiring when the organisation already has employees with transferable capabilities.

Internal mobility is also becoming more important. Moving existing employees into emerging roles can sometimes be faster and more sustainable than competing for scarce external talent.

Flexible workforce models provide another option. Permanent employees remain important for capabilities that are central to the long-term organisation, while contract or project-based talent can provide additional capacity when demand is less certain.

This is where staffing solutions in the Middle East can form part of a broader workforce strategy rather than being treated only as a response to vacancies.

Finally, workforce analytics can help employers monitor whether the assumptions behind a workforce plan are still valid.

Useful indicators can include vacancy levels, time to fill, turnover, skills availability, internal mobility, localisation progress, workforce costs and changes in business demand. HR KPIs in the GCC provide a useful measurement layer for workforce planning.

A practical workforce-planning framework for GCC employers

A more flexible workforce plan can be built around six steps. For organisations working through this for the first time, structured HR consulting in the Middle East can help translate scenarios like these into a workable organisational structure, given how closely workforce planning is tied to local labour-law requirements.

1. Map the workforce you have
Start with current headcount, skills, roles, locations, nationalities, tenure, and critical positions.

The aim is to understand not only how many employees the organisation has, but what capabilities are actually available.

2. Map the workforce the business will need
Look 12, 24 and 36 months ahead.

Consider planned growth, projects, technology investments, localisation requirements and changes in the operating model.

3. Identify the assumptions that could change
Not every assumption carries the same level of risk.

Identify the assumptions that could materially affect workforce requirements: project timelines, regulatory changes, investment levels, technology adoption, market demand or access to international talent.

4. Build scenarios
Develop a small number of realistic workforce scenarios rather than relying on a single forecast.

For each scenario, determine what would happen to headcount, skills, hiring, training, localisation and workforce costs.

5. Decide what to build, buy, borrow or automate
Not every capability needs to be addressed through permanent recruitment.

Some can be developed internally. Others may require external hiring. Certain short-term requirements may be better addressed through contract talent, while repetitive activities may be candidates for automation.

The decision should depend on the importance of the capability, how quickly it is needed and how certain the demand is.

6. Define the triggers for reviewing the plan
A workforce plan should not sit unchanged for an entire year.

Define the events that should trigger a review.

These could include a major regulatory change, project delay, unexpected growth, significant technology adoption, loss of critical talent or disruption to international mobility.

This turns workforce planning into a continuous process rather than an annual exercise.

What GCC employers should ask before their next workforce plan

Workforce demand

• What roles will the business need over the next 12–36 months?
• Which roles depend on assumptions that could change?
• Which capabilities are critical to planned growth?

Skills

• Which skills are difficult to source externally?
• Which capabilities can be developed internally?
• Where are the largest current and future skills gaps?

Localisation

• Which roles are affected by current or upcoming nationalisation requirements?
• Where can the organisation build stronger national talent pipelines?
• Which roles require longer-term development?

Flexibility

• Which positions require permanent employees?
• Where could project-based or contract talent provide useful flexibility?
• How quickly would the organisation need to scale its workforce if demand increased?

Technology

• Which roles are likely to change as AI adoption increases?
• Which employees could be upskilled or reskilled?
• Which new capabilities will need to be recruited?

Risk

• Which critical positions depend on a narrow talent pool?
• Where are succession gaps?
• What would happen if international recruitment became more difficult?

Measurement

• Which workforce indicators would tell us that our assumptions are no longer valid?
• How frequently should the workforce plan be reviewed?
• Who is responsible for triggering a review when conditions change?

Workforce planning in the GCC is becoming a continuous process

The purpose of workforce planning is not to predict the future perfectly.

That is increasingly difficult in a region where regulation, investment priorities, technology, skills requirements and labour mobility can all change.

The more useful objective is to create options.

That means understanding the workforce already available, identifying the capabilities the business will need, developing internal talent where possible, maintaining external talent pipelines where necessary and having flexible workforce models available when demand changes.

For GCC employers, resilient workforce planning is therefore less about producing one perfect headcount forecast and more about building a workforce that can adapt when the plan changes.

Frequently asked questions

What is workforce planning in the GCC?
Workforce planning in the GCC is the process of aligning an organisation’s workforce, skills and talent strategy with current and future business requirements while accounting for regional factors such as localisation policies, labour mobility, technology and changing market conditions.

What are the main workforce planning challenges facing GCC employers?
Key challenges include localisation requirements, skills gaps, changing project demand, AI-driven changes to roles, competition for specialist talent and potential disruptions to international labour mobility.

How is localisation affecting workforce planning in the GCC?
Localisation is increasingly influencing which roles organisations hire for, how they develop national talent, how they structure career pathways and how they balance national and expatriate workforce requirements.

How can GCC companies address skills gaps?
Companies can combine internal upskilling and reskilling, stronger talent pipelines, internal mobility, targeted external recruitment, flexible staffing and automation.

How does geopolitical uncertainty affect workforce planning?
Geopolitical uncertainty can affect labour mobility, recruitment, project activity, supply chains and business confidence. Workforce plans should therefore identify critical dependencies and develop alternatives where practical.

How can companies make workforce planning more flexible?
Companies can use scenario planning, define clear review triggers and combine permanent employees with internal development, external recruitment, contract talent, and automation according to business requirements.